www.ukbutterflies.co.uk

With the fact that we're basically committing genetic suicide in the mass burning of carbon, and that the UK is getting warmer, I wonder what species we might be in for?

My guess is Map and Large Chequered Skipper? I would guess we'll see more of the migrants like the Q of Spain Frit and Long Tailed Blue. Any comments? What other species inhabit the north of France and are hindered by 20 miles of English Channel?

I note the butterfly book indicates certain species are moving northward such as Small Tort etc, I wonder if some species in Calais at the edge of their range might drift themselves into the UK.

Danny

I agree with QofS, but Map and Large Chequered Skipper aren't long-distant migrants.
The small, and now extinct (I think) LCS colony in Jersey was introduced via hay from the mainland. The ocasional sightings of Map in the UK are (I believe) from introductions.
Far more likely are Bath White, Long Tailed and Bloxworth Blues, and Fennel feeding Swallowtails.
Any other ideas?
Roger

Geranium bronze?

I think that different species will behave in different ways.

1. Some species will move north (if they can) and take up new sites.

2. Some species will be hard-hit if they are unable to sustain the required temperature, and are unable to move due to the fragmentation of our landscape (see Martin Warren's interview where he expresses concern over drough-prone species).

3. Some species will simply grow larger colonies since many species are at the northern limit of their range in the UK.

4. Common migrants that are now able to overwinter.

5. Rare migrants that, potentially, are also able to become resident.

Cheers,

- Pete

I wonder what will happen to species like the Camberwell Beauty that many got glimpses of this summer? I've heard that it could live in the UK if it wasn't for our mild winters; it needs a sustained cold spell in order to hibernate effectively. If mild winters become the norm for other European countries it could be at risk.

I think species currently resident in northern France will struggle to colonise. It's possible some cannot live here due to climate - but far more likely that the Channel is a barrier they cannot cross, or (for those species that do disperse across the Channel) that the numbers occurring here are too low for colonisation to take place - the 'gorganus' race of the Swallowtail, the Black-veined White and the Large Tortoiseshell being cases in point. For colonisation to be successful it would need global warming to prompt a build-up of numbers on the far side of the Channel, and I'd guess that habitat loss there makes this unlikely. The Black-veined White, which has a reproductive strategy aimed at rapid expansion of numbers, is the rarest of these vagrants but I think the most likely to benefit.

More likely colonists are species that do not presently breed in northern France, but do in central France, and could expand rapidly north, in the way that Cetti's Warbler and Little Egret have done in recent years. Candidates would be species that migrate, but do not usually migrate far enough north to reach the UK (Pale and Berger's Clouded Yellow, Scarce Swallowtail, Short-tailed Blue, possibly Lang's Short-tailed Blue) or species that can disperse far enough to cross the Channel (I'm guessing based on the behaviour of their relatives resident in the UK - perhaps species like Cleopatra, Cardinal, Niobe Fritillary, Poplar Admiral and Lesser Purple Emperor).