Clouded Yellow epidemic?
Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 6:20 pm
The frequent sightings of Clouded Yellows have been exciting for everyone, myself included. I made a point of reading the species page for this butterfly in Jeremy Thomas's Butterflies of Britain & Ireland and I couldn't help but pontificate on what seems possible over the next six weeks.
On page 54:
...There is often a further brood that can produce enormous numbers in September and October, although this failed to materialise in 1983 owing, probably, to unseasonably bad weather.
I then checked out the Met Office long range forecast:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Aug 2013 to Thursday 29 Aug 2013:
Many parts will enjoy some sunny spells through Tuesday and Wednesday, the best of which will be across southern and eastern areas where it should turn warm at times. There will, however, be some showers, mainly in the north and west with the risk of more persistent rain and stronger winds for a time. From Thursday until Saturday, most parts will continue to see fine, dry and sunny weather with warm temperatures in places. Parts of the west and northwest may be more unsettled with rain at times, and there is also a low risk of these conditions spreading as far south as the Midlands. Thereafter, dry, warm and sunny weather may continue in the south and east, although more unsettled weather is likely to affect the north and west.
UK Outlook for Friday 30 Aug 2013 to Friday 13 Sep 2013:
A good deal of settled weather is expected to continue into the early part of this forecast period, most likely leaving many regions with spells of fine and pleasantly warm weather, especially in the south and east of the country. Thereafter no strong signals currently exist for conditions during early September. As such some spells of fine weather are likely but equally, relative to the early part of this forecast period, bouts of unsettled weather may also become more likely during early September.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ ... ather.html
So, on the face of it, we already have large numbers of Clouded Yellows here in the UK (in the south at least). We also have a fairly optimistic forecast for warm and sunny conditions to persist until at least the middle of September.
My question is this: If conditions remain favourable and the current crop of crocea set down eggs on the copious clover/lucerne we have in this country AND the long range forecast is accurate and we remain warm until mid September at least, could we perhaps see one of these epidemics before October arrives?
On page 54:
...There is often a further brood that can produce enormous numbers in September and October, although this failed to materialise in 1983 owing, probably, to unseasonably bad weather.
I then checked out the Met Office long range forecast:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Aug 2013 to Thursday 29 Aug 2013:
Many parts will enjoy some sunny spells through Tuesday and Wednesday, the best of which will be across southern and eastern areas where it should turn warm at times. There will, however, be some showers, mainly in the north and west with the risk of more persistent rain and stronger winds for a time. From Thursday until Saturday, most parts will continue to see fine, dry and sunny weather with warm temperatures in places. Parts of the west and northwest may be more unsettled with rain at times, and there is also a low risk of these conditions spreading as far south as the Midlands. Thereafter, dry, warm and sunny weather may continue in the south and east, although more unsettled weather is likely to affect the north and west.
UK Outlook for Friday 30 Aug 2013 to Friday 13 Sep 2013:
A good deal of settled weather is expected to continue into the early part of this forecast period, most likely leaving many regions with spells of fine and pleasantly warm weather, especially in the south and east of the country. Thereafter no strong signals currently exist for conditions during early September. As such some spells of fine weather are likely but equally, relative to the early part of this forecast period, bouts of unsettled weather may also become more likely during early September.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ ... ather.html
So, on the face of it, we already have large numbers of Clouded Yellows here in the UK (in the south at least). We also have a fairly optimistic forecast for warm and sunny conditions to persist until at least the middle of September.
My question is this: If conditions remain favourable and the current crop of crocea set down eggs on the copious clover/lucerne we have in this country AND the long range forecast is accurate and we remain warm until mid September at least, could we perhaps see one of these epidemics before October arrives?