www.ukbutterflies.co.uk

What do you use online for a fairly accurate forecast of the weather? Is there any anything that is good for:

a) an hour by hour forecast on the day?
b) advance forecasts for a week ahead?

I always use BBC and find that for the hour by hour daily forecasts they are good at forecasting poor weather but not that good at forecasting the good. Their advance forecasts for the 14 days ahead are spectacularly inept.

I have tried AccuWeather a few times but that is no better. It is at this point that I reluctantly go back to the BBC having concluded that the vagaries of the British weather can't be forecast and that it is not helped by me living in the middle of England too.

Ironically, I bet egg, caterpillar, chrysalis and butterfly know exactly what is going to happen hour by hour and in the fortnight ahead.

A favourite topic of mine, Chris!

I use the Met. Office forecasts pretty well all of the time. They appear to be by far the most professional forecasters. The BBC are good second, and all others way behind in my view.

It is worth subscribing to the Met. Office YouTube channel as you get:

1. Routine video forecasts several times a day.
2. A weekly "Ten-day Trend" forecast with a a good amount of background detail.
3. A weekly "Deep Dive" which is a great analysis of recent weather, a detailed look ahead, and quite often some more esoteric stuff around the physics of meteorological events. They often give indications as to the confidence level of the current forecast and why this can be very low sometimes.
4. A weekly "The Week Ahead" forecast (on Mondays).
5. A weekly "Weekend Forecast".

I supplement this with a weather channel called windy.com, which has weather radar and satellite views amongst its many (free) features, and these are extremely useful for informing what is likely to happen in the next few hours. You can see cloud building (or if you're lucky, dissipating!), showers approaching and intensifying, thunderstorms - and all the rest. You can pin a location and get an estimate of current conditions. It offers a variety of forecasts for the days ahead too and offers several different sources (including the Met. Office and the European forecast ensemble). Worth a browse, especially if you are into matters meteorological. It also has very good maps!

Best of all is a good long view of the horizon in the direction from which the wind is coming!

Cheers,

Dave

For about ten years, I provided weather forecast specifically for gliding, including for major competitions.  I used various sources, some quite technical, such as atmospheric 'soundings'.  I will modestly say that my forecasts were well received. Computer forecasting has now taken over.

However, I still take an 'unhealthy' interest in weather forecasting.  The Czech organisation, Ventusky, takes some beating. 

https://www.ventusky.com/

Jack

Thank you for your contributions Dave and Jack.

Today was a BBC classic. Patchy sunshine until 11am and then white cloud for the rest of the day was the forecast. The reality was that it was pretty much sunny all day . I always find it amusing that the forecast showing online is sometimes incorrect when the weather is actually happening - like today.

Chris L wrote: ↑Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:26 pm Thank you for your contributions Dave and Jack.

Today was a BBC classic. Patchy sunshine until 11am and then white cloud for the rest of the day was the forecast. The reality was that it was pretty much sunny all day .

Looks like we had the other half of that equation here Chris. The forecast was the same as yours but we ended up with a lot of cloud and occassional sun, all with a chilly wind.

Cheers,

Neil.

Whereas here near Heathrow, the Met Office prediction of a sunny start with cloud building from the east by lunchtime and into the afternoon, and then clearing as sunset approached turned out to be almost 100% accurate. They overestimated the temperatures a degree or two though - it was very chilly!

Dave

I find the hour by hour Apps very inaccurate, whereas the BBC TV forecast, and the video forecast on the Met. Office website are rather more reliable. 12C and overcast, and 12C in brilliant sunshine, as we all know, are in different leagues for the butterfly enthusiast, especially at this time of year. It must be said, though, that predicting cloud amounts is notoriously difficult.

As EB wrote above, it is about fine margins for the butterfly enthusiast. Yesterday I went out for a day under the cloud forecast expecting to see an all day breakfast and a cappuccino. The sun being out resulted in me driving past the cafe at speed on a whim for an extra 35 minute drive for 18 Green Hairstreak, a Holly Blue and an Adder.