Hi Paul,
I don't claim to be an 'expert', but probably know sufficient to answer your query. It does look worrying when a walk through a young coppice coupe shows widespread 'cold-burning' of chestnut regrowth, bramble shoots and even drooping bracken! The frosts we've had lately have been harsh enough to blacken and wither delicate plant tissues.
But butterflies are much tougher than they look, at all stages in their life cycle, although some stages are tougher than others. We now know that the temperature-sensitive early stages of the Red Admiral can nowadays tolerate even the periodically harsh conditions of a British winter. Although sub-zero temperatures will still kill the majority, the development of some individuals will continue, over a greatly extended timescale. To go from egg to adult in six weeks under really warm conditions, but still manage to complete the journey over the six months including winter, demonstrates a remarkable level of plasticity in response to low temperature.
What we are seeing this spring is a far less challenging scenario, occurring over a much shorter period and affecting species which are much tougher than the Red Admiral - they've had plenty of time to adapt! The cold snap will simply put the brakes on the emergence of spring species, leading to drawn-out flight seasons, which isn't such a bad thing. Pearl-bordered Fritillary has been on the wing for some time now, and yet its season has barely started.
Those who have watched butterflies over many years will have seen this all before, most recently in 2010. Spring species emerged in very low numbers over an extended period, until the winds swung from the north to the southwest on 13 May. Butterfly numbers exploded, relatively late during what we consider their current flight seasons. That said, the arrested development of pupae, in response to low temperature, does have its limits. Beyond a tipping point, mortality rate will start to rise, due to factors such as desiccation.
More severe, unseasonal weather (and I mean
really severe) can, however, be utterly devastating. Research I conducted for The Butterflies of Sussex
https://www.naturebureau.co.uk/bookshop ... sex-detail suggests that the winter of 1947 (the longest period of snow cover during the 20th century) and artic summers of 1954 (frosts in July) and 1956, which occurred immediately prior to the compounding effects of myxomatosis (overgrowth of swards following introduction of the disease in 1953) had a massive impact of the fortunes of a suite of warmth-dependent species. In some cases this took them more than 30 years to recover from; in other cases, such as the chalk-bound race of Grayling, they never did. I believe that the period 1947 - 1956 represents a major watershed for British butterflies.
Will we see a high incidence of environmentally-triggered aberrants? There are a couple of possible contenders, but I'd like to see some wild temperature swings in late May. Bring on the black White Admirals and purple Purple Emperors!
BWs, Neil